Panel dashboard of AEMO's Electricity Statement of Opportunities 2025 demand projections for the NEM and each state, 2019–2055.
Replaces a 2025-vintage Jupyter notebook (demand_fcst4.ipynb) that ran AEMO ISP 2024 / ESOO 2024 data. ESOO 2025 (published 21 Aug 2025) has materially different numbers in two places: business / data-centre demand revised up ~22 TWh by 2040, and hydrogen production revised down ~19 TWh.
Lives at https://forecast.itkservices2.com (Cloudflare tunnel → port 5201 on daves_mini).
Demand Analysis — choose a scenario and region, see the demand components table, supply summary, residential detail, and a stacked area chart of the demand stack.
Scenario / Region Comparison — pick a single category or subcategory and compare it across scenarios (one region) or across the NEM + 5 states (one scenario). Includes CSV download.
data/esoo_2025.xlsx — AEMO Forecasting Data Portal export, filter Publication = ESOO 2025. Refresh annually when AEMO publishes the next ESOO.
Five forecast scenarios + Actuals:
- Step Change (default)
- Slower Growth
- Accelerated Transition
- Data Centre Sensitivity
- Low Industrial Load Sensitivity
AEMO publishes Energy Efficiency as positive TWh values that represent avoided consumption — savings already netted out of the headline Operational (Sent Out) total. This dashboard hides those rows from the demand stack, the residential breakdown, and the Tab 2 comparison selector. Operational (Sent Out) is left exactly as AEMO publishes it (so it still incorporates the assumed EE savings).
uv sync
uv run panel serve src/aemo_demand_fcst/app.py --show./run.sh — wraps panel serve with the right --allow-websocket-origin and binds 0.0.0.0:5201.
uv run pytestKey anchor: NEM Operational (Sent Out) 2024 Actual = 177.03 TWh.
Flexoki Light. Palette and Bokeh theme in src/aemo_demand_fcst/theme.py.